ddd19-2. The odds against my proof of 2,012.(How hard to be wrong against such odds in favour.)

Saturday, October 6th, 2,012.

My 2,012 proof/s probability.


In my previous articles I listed 13-14 dates of years in which the worst disaster UP UNTIL THAT DATE occurred. I first worked out the mathematical geometric law – and listed the dates. What are the odds of getting 13 out of 14 correct – to the year? Now I worked out that really big disasters(biggest to that date) occurred about(very roughly) once every 25 years(actually I think this is a gross under-estimate, but I needed something to go by). So what is the likelihood of getting(I think first Turkish date in there is correct, so I actually got more like 13/13 or 14/14 correct. Let us use that – and re-adjust later. Say 14/14. Each one with odds against of 25 to 1. 25 to the power of 14.(25 times itself 14 times) his is at least about 100,000,000,000,000 to 1, against.(I didn’t choose the year dates. They are the result of following a geometric binomial law.)(This is like playing quoits at a board of 25 or so, and getting the chosen one EACH TIME – by throwing them backwards over your head! – Without looking or aiming, other than at the board!!)(Or forwards, blind-folded and spun around!!)(Or shooting down 14 flies buzzing around in a room, with a pea-shooter.)(With only 14 shots allowed.)
Anyone can check, on The Internet, the 14 dates I give.

Anyway, the NEXT date in line is 2,012 or 2,013. Care to risk THOSE odds??!!

Those are the odds that within about a year from now, – is Doomsday!! Actually this year. December 21st/22nd; 2,012.






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