Wednesday, 22nd February, 2,012.
World situation,now, continuing. As per date.
Gillard is almost certain to lose the election. Rudd is less likely to lose. But he badly lacks the numbers. However, I think, since Rudd is the better choice, that the numbers can be rustled up. Rather than take a greater risk with the election.
So point out Rudd’s better chances to the ministers, and I think, IN TIME, that you would get the numbers. Probably quickly – with Labor loss at stake otherwise!
The only obstacle is Gillard. And she IS Prime Minister!
She will be taking unofficial internal ballots all the time – to keep a constant check on the numbers’ distribution. Once they favour someone else before her, she can then DEFY all pressures. And she is very stubborn. Especially as she will be working to keep the opposing numbers as low as possible! She holds the roost!!
All she has to do is keep the numbers secret from all the others.
So it looks like being a contest between Prime Minister Gillard and Mr.Rudd, and those ministers who prefer Rudd or anyone with a better chance than HER.
Rudd will return next week and IF he has the numbers, will challenge.
I don’t see how she can lose, ballot or not.
Though I do not think that she will win the election.
If she can ensure secrecy, then who is to know the distribution even if Rudd or someone does get more numbers than her.
As P.M. she can do a lot in this direction.
A ballot itself would have little or no magical power.
How are you going to beat her? I don’t think you can!
Gillard or Rudd look like being losses for Labor. And there are no other contenders with greater numbers!!
No can do. And Labor loss looks most probable!
I THINK Rudd(or whoever is popular enough) WOULD quickly get the required numbers. Since it is that or probably lose the election!
So expect much chit chat, while Rudd’s(or whoever’s) numbers are worked up.
And then pressure Julia to hold a leadership ballot. I can’t see a challenger getting more support than HER.
She could in time be pressured into holding a leadership ballot.
I cannot see her winning the election. And Rudd,the only current rival, would not stand a much better chance. He is(or was) popular with the people. But is rather unwelcome among the ministers!!
Between now and Kevin’s return, an all-out attempt will be made to get HIS numbers back up.
Then pressure can be applied to Gillard.
I THINK both independents, and Greens would support the new incumbent!! That being a better bet than a Gillard election win!!
So the main obstacle(to Labor) looks like being a very stubborn cunning Gillard! – With OR WITHOUT enough challenge numbers!!
She is hardly going to hold a leadership ballot that loses for her!
But she CAN be pressure to breaking point. Quickly.
I think that is what will happen. Rudd will challenge. Leadership ballot called. Gillard objects. But finally has to concede.
Then Rudd wins.
Independents and Greens support him. But some ministers walk out!! Then an election called.
Rudd PERHAPS winning the election!
This should be VERY interesting to watch.
Tough bird Julia versus the revolting back benchers.
But if Rudd gets back as Party Leader and P.M.(Likely, I think.), many ministers will walk out. Down comes government.
All seems to hinge upon Gillard-Rudd AND Gillard versus back benchers. AND Rudd versus HIS enemies!!(Who be more than a few!!)
Turnbull could overpower Abbot, and complicate things!!
Gillard, bad though she is, if not hopeless, is the best bet for Labor!
Which is WHY Trade Unions,etc. support her, and demand support for her!!
So there you have it.
Rudd challenges. Eventually wins party leadership.
But too many ministers walk out, and down comes government! Immediate election called.
DESPITE independents AND Greens supporting the new incombent Labor man!!
I think Julia should call an immediate election.(In the interests of the country.)
Failing which The Govenor General should call an immediate election.(In the interests of the country.)